27 FEB 2001
By David Gonzales
Editor's Note: This story was originally published in the Jackson Hole Guide column, Getting Out, November 29, 2000.
In case you're wondering exactly when it's going to snow this winter, I can
tell you:
It will snow on December 1-3, 8-10, and 22-25 and on January 10-25. (It's
going to be a great January.) Also on February 13-20. And on March 1-8 and
20-24.
At least, that's what the Old Farmer's Almanac claims. In the summary for
its Rocky Mountains forecast for the 2000-2001 winter, the 209-year-old
almanac predicts, "The most widespread substantial snowfalls will occur in
early to mid-November, mid-January, and mid-February."
So far, its predictions look pretty good. The Rockies (at least, some of the
Rockies) did get lots of snow in early to mid-November. And for the specific
dates of November 24-30, the almanac predicts "cold, rain and snow."
It's snowing right now, as I write this.
Of course, serious meteorologists laugh at the Old Farmer's Almanac "weather
prognostications," which are "derived...from a secret formula devised by
the founder of this Almanac in 1792, enhanced by the most modern scientific
calculations based on solar activity and current meteorological data."
Even the almanac's publisher seems a bit snide about the whole thing. When
the newest edition of the almanac was released this September, publisher Jud
Hale claimed his book's accuracy rate was exactly 80 percent. "Never '81 and
never '79," he said.
You'd think that in today's hyper-technological era, with a super computer on
every desktop and satellites crowding the skies, serious science could outdo
the Almanac, and actually make a plausible forecast about the coming months.
But the most daring statement most serious meteorologists want to make about
this winter is that temperatures should be a bit cooler and precipitation
more normal, now that El Niño and La Niña are behind us. Which leaves us
with such edifying statements as the one made October 12 by National Weather
Service director Jack Kelly, who said, "As in most normal years . . . cold
weather will be a part of your routine this winter."
Thanks, Jack.
But what does the end of the Niño and Niña phenomena mean to us? Hesitantly,
local storm sage Jim Woodmency suggests, "I think people should be prepared
for something a bit more normal. Or below normal."
Basically, says Woodmency, El Niño and La Niña were very good to us, and we
can't expect the bounty to continue.
"We've had five winters in a row with above normal snowfall," Woodmency
explains. "And the '96-'97 winter was the biggest we've seen in 30-odd years.
The last time we had a below normal winter was in '93-'94. In '91-'92, we got
only 150 inches of snow. People who have only lived here two or three years
don't know what a 200-inch year is like."
Many locals, however, are optimistic about our coming winter, due to this
summer's droughts and fires. They point to the snowy 88-89 winter after the
Yellowstone fires.
Woodmency, however, has looked into those numbers and is not so impressed.
"In '88-'89, we had a great early season start," he says. "November was
incredibly snowy, and it continued through December. But the snowfall
averaged out over the season, and it ended up being just a bit above
normal."
As it turns out, forest fires do not make for increased snowfall. Unlike
volcanic ash, which remains high in the atmosphere months after an eruption,
ash from forest fires gets "washed out of the atmosphere and precipitated
out."
More importantly, ash from smoke doesn't help in the first place. Basically,
every single snowflake that falls from the sky is formed around a speck of
dust or some other kind of "condensation nuclei." According to Woodmency,
volcanic ash mimics natural atmospheric particles and therefore makes
suitable condensation nuclei. But ash particles from smoke, which lack the
appropriate size and geometric shape, do not.
Interestingly enough, though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (which operates the National Weather Service) will only speak
vaguely about the coming winter, it claims that more droughts and other
"extreme weather events" are likely in the near future.
"As our climate changes, extreme
weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, heavy rainfall,
tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to increase," reported the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this autumn.
It's a pretty terrifying report, and goes on to say, "The annual number of
catastrophes grew from 10 per year in the 1950s to 35 per year in the
1990s."
Of course, such climatic upheavals aren't going to make meteorologists' jobs
any easier. They're already difficult enough, what with snow desperate
skiers like myself pressing Jim Woodmency to make specific predictions about
this winter. Don't worry, he says, you won't be disappointed.
"It would have to be a really exceptionally bad winter not to keep us in
pretty good shape," Woody says reassuringly. "We're in such a good location
here. Jackson Hole can pretty much count on enough snow to keep skiers
happy."
That's as far as he would go. He wouldn't give numbers. Nor dates. If you
ask him for such, you can count on getting the following answer:
"We're working on it," Woody will say. "Call me back on April 1 and I'll
tell you."
© 2000 David Gonzales. All Rights Reserved.
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